Daily EditionFree. New issue every weekday morning, lighter on weekends.

Thursday, November 12, 2026 ยท Daily Edition

CRE Blurb

The daily commercial real estate briefing for students and professionalsDaily CRE briefing for students

Markets

From the issue of Thursday, November 12, 2026. Updated with every issue.

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans
4.98%+10 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages
4.81%+14 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates
4.73%+17 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal
25 bps-7 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans
3.89%+1 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it
3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Nov 12)
7.11%-7 bps

Rates as of Nov 10 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 5.26% on Sep 29 to 4.98% on Nov 10.
10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.
Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Nov 10: 2Y 4.73%, 5Y 4.81%, 10Y 4.98%, 30Y 5.35%. A month ago (Oct 9): 2Y 4.80%, 5Y 5.02%, 10Y 5.24%, 30Y 5.60%.
Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.
Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.51% on May 21 to 7.11% on Nov 12.
30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates
Dec 9
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders
0.5%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same
2.7%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up
96.8%

Kalshi: hold 3.4%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Dec 9 Fed meeting: cut 0.5%, hold 2.7%, hike 96.8%.
What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Nov 12.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs (as of Nov 11)
$97.02-0.1%
Biggest gain todayOwns data centers (as of Nov 11)
Equinix (EQIX)+1.7%
Biggest drop todayOwns West Coast offices and studios (as of Nov 11)
Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP)-3.6%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ
3.63%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds
-135 bps
Bar chart of moves for the Nov 11 close for 17 REITs, best to worst: EQIX +1.7%, DLR +0.1%, SPG +0.1%, DEI +0.1%, O +0.1%, PLD -0.1%, ADC -0.1%, WELL -0.1%, BXP -0.2%, VICI -0.2%, UDR -0.3%, MAA -0.6%, ESS -0.6%, STAG -0.7%, NNN -0.9%, VNO -1.0%, HPP -3.6%.
Daily move, Nov 11 close, for the REITs we track. Shows which property types had a good day.

What it means: The 2-year Treasury, which tracks what traders expect the Fed to do soon, made a notable move. Short-term borrowing costs shifted, so anyone pricing a floating-rate loan should take note.

Why Equinix (EQIX) moved: No company-specific news today; it may have moved with other data center REITs.

Why Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) moved: No company-specific news today; it may have moved with other office REITs.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread (Nov 11) UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous
3.30%-4 bps
Bank CRE loans (Oct 28)Total commercial property loans banks hold
$3,155B+0.1%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments
1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Oct 2026)Share of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments
7.87%-15 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.