CRE Blurb | November 12, 2026

The Brief

Investors are pulling money from Blackstone's flagship property fund as its returns keep sliding. GlobeSt.com
The Children's Place filed for bankruptcy and will close every store, emptying retail space nationwide. Connect CRE
Databricks opened a huge San Francisco headquarters, a sign AI firms are reviving office demand. San Francisco Chronicle

Market Snapshot

10-Year Treasury: 4.98%+10 bps; Benchmark for long-term property loans
SOFR: 3.89%+1 bps; Base rate for floating-rate property loans
Real estate stocks (VNQ): $97.02-0.1%; A fund holding about 150 REITs (as of Nov 11)

Rates as of Nov 10 close. Full market data

Top Story

A Brooklyn Building Collapsed, Killing Eight

A building in Brooklyn collapsed, killing eight people and injuring many others, The Real Deal reported. The cause of the collapse was not yet clear.

Source: The Real Deal: A Brooklyn Building Collapsed, Killing Eight

Why it matters Owners of older buildings and the city now face pressure to step up inspections, and liability questions could follow for whoever maintained the structure.

Coffee chat talking points

Talking points you can use in networking conversations

The Google-occupied FiDi building sold at nearly a 60% markup over its 2023 price, and with Databricks opening a new headquarters, San Francisco office values look to be recovering. The Real Deal
DFW's land market may need about 18 months to level out, cooling the Sun Belt just as San Francisco offices show signs of recovering. Bisnow

Debt Markets

Private lenders are outpacing banks and insurers in commercial real estate lending, GlobeSt reports. As banks pulled back, debt funds and other private players stepped in to make loans. GlobeSt.com

Why it matters: Borrowers can still find money, but private debt often costs more than a bank loan, so financing deals gets pricier.

Big law firm tenants are becoming a refinancing risk for office owners, GlobeSt writes. When a major firm downsizes or leaves, the building's income falls. GlobeSt.com

Why it matters: Lenders size a refinance off a building's rent, so a shrinking law-firm tenant can leave an owner short when the loan comes due.

Luxury apartments in Santa Monica owned by Pimco and Witkoff are heading to foreclosure, according to a new report. Foreclosure means the lender is moving to seize the property because the owners fell behind on the loan. Even well-known investors with deep pockets are not immune when a building's debt comes due in a hard market. The Real Deal.

Why it matters: When a lender forecloses on a trophy property owned by big-name firms, it signals to other lenders that even prime assets can go bad, which can make new apartment loans harder to get.

Distress Watch: Store openings are now overtaking closures as retailers move into space left by bankrupt chains, GlobeSt reports. GlobeSt.com

Market Watch

Sun Belt

Rex Real Estate owner Rex Glendenning expects it to take about 18 months for the Dallas-Fort Worth land market to level out after a five-year development boom. He sees sales volume picking back up only after that stretch. Bisnow

Why it matters: A slower land market means developers who bought lots to build on may wait longer to sell, tying up cash in one of the country's hottest growth regions.

West Coast

Clarion Partners has put its loan on a Netflix-occupied Hollywood campus up for sale, The Real Deal reported. Selling the debt lets the lender raise cash or offload risk on the property. The Real Deal

Why it matters: When a lender sells a loan, the price it fetches signals how much investors trust the building's rent, here a single large media tenant.

International

Argentic confirmed the launch of a European real estate lending platform, Green Street News reported. The move expands the firm's loan business beyond the United States. Green Street News

Why it matters: More lenders entering Europe gives property owners there more options to borrow, which can ease financing just as it tightens in some US markets.

Quick Hits

Los Angeles Mayor-elect Nithya Raman inherits a stalled housing pipeline and must decide how to speed development. Commercial Observer Faster approvals would let builders add badly needed homes in a city known for long permitting delays.
A new Opportunity Zone map shifts the hunt for deals toward suburbs and secondary cities. Bisnow Opportunity Zones offer tax breaks for investing in designated areas, so the new map redirects that money to smaller markets.
A foreclosure auction is set for the Radford Studio Center, with Netflix the leading bidder. The Real Deal When a tenant bids to buy the property it occupies, it can lock in its space and avoid a new landlord.
Gary Barnett bought out the Podolsky brothers, ending a years-long standoff over an Upper East Side development site. The Real Deal Clearing a co-owner dispute lets the developer finally move ahead with building.
The Broe Group added a 22-floor luxury Dallas tower to its growing multifamily portfolio. PR Newswire Buying apartments in a fast-growing metro bets that renter demand keeps rising.

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans: 4.98%+10 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages: 4.81%+14 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates: 4.73%+17 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal: 25 bps-7 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans: 3.89%+1 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it: 3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Nov 12): 7.11%-7 bps

Rates as of Nov 10 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 5.26% on Sep 29 to 4.98% on Nov 10. — 10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.

Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Nov 10: 2Y 4.73%, 5Y 4.81%, 10Y 4.98%, 30Y 5.35%. A month ago (Oct 9): 2Y 4.80%, 5Y 5.02%, 10Y 5.24%, 30Y 5.60%. — Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.

Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.51% on May 21 to 7.11% on Nov 12. — 30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates: Dec 9
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders: 0.5%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same: 2.7%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up: 96.8%

Kalshi: hold 3.4%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Dec 9 Fed meeting: cut 0.5%, hold 2.7%, hike 96.8%. — What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Nov 12.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs (as of Nov 11): $97.02-0.1%
Biggest gain todayOwns data centers (as of Nov 11): Equinix (EQIX)+1.7%
Biggest drop todayOwns West Coast offices and studios (as of Nov 11): Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP)-3.6%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ: 3.63%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds: -135 bps

What it means: The 2-year Treasury, which tracks what traders expect the Fed to do soon, made a notable move. Short-term borrowing costs shifted, so anyone pricing a floating-rate loan should take note.

Why Equinix (EQIX) moved: No company-specific news today; it may have moved with other data center REITs.

Why Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) moved: No company-specific news today; it may have moved with other office REITs.

Term of the Day

Interest-only

A loan period where the borrower pays only the interest each month, with the full principal (the amount borrowed) due later. On a $10 million interest-only loan, the owner pays interest but nothing toward the $10 million until the term ends. It keeps payments low now, but the borrower must refinance or sell to repay the principal later.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread (Nov 11) UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous: 3.30%-4 bps
Bank CRE loans (Oct 28)Total commercial property loans banks hold: $3,155B+0.1%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments: 1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Oct 2026)Share of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments: 7.87%-15 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.

New issue every morning at creblurb.org.

CRE Blurb: Thursday, November 12, 2026