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Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Weekend Edition

CRE Blurb: Sunday, October 25, 2026

The daily commercial real estate briefing for students and professionalsDaily CRE briefing for students

The Brief

  1. Fannie Mae says the lower interest rates many borrowers hoped for are not coming soon. StreetInsider
  2. AI data center building is pushing warehouse rents higher, raising occupancy costs for industrial tenants. Prop News Time
  3. Tight lending has not stopped tenants from signing leases, a rare bright spot for landlords. The Charlotte Ledger

Market Snapshot

10-Year Treasury
5.00%+4 bps
Benchmark for long-term property loans
SOFR
3.90%+2 bps
Base rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Oct 22)
Real estate stocks (VNQ)
$92.690.0%
A fund holding about 150 REITs

Rates as of Oct 23 close. Full market data

REIT Weekly

REITs are baskets of income-producing property you can buy like a stock, so their prices often move with where investors think interest rates are headed. When yields on safe Treasury bonds rise, REIT dividends look less attractive by comparison, and that tug-of-war shows up in the weekly winners and losers below.

  • Best this week: HPP +6.8%, VNO +5.7%, BXP +4.9%
  • Worst this week: EQIX -3.1%, DLR -2.0%, ADC -0.5%
  • REIT yield vs. 10Y: VNQ yields 3.80%, -120 bps vs. the 10Y.

Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve meets this week, so rate watchers will be glued to the decision and the chair's comments afterward. On Polymarket, a prediction market where people bet real money on outcomes, the top outcome is No change 94.5%. A busy data week also brings fresh readings on growth, inflation and housing, each of which feeds into where borrowing costs head next.

  • Tue Oct 27: Housing starts (New Residential Construction), FRED
  • Tue Oct 27: New home sales, FRED
  • Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Meeting, Federal Reserve
  • Thu Oct 29: GDP, FRED
  • Thu Oct 29: PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays), FRED
  • Fri Oct 30: Employment Cost Index, FRED

Careers Corner

Learn to read a deal's capital stack before your next interview. The capital stack is simply the layers of money funding a property, from the senior mortgage at the bottom to the owner's equity on top, each with its own risk and return. When a lender like Walker & Dunlop arranges a short-term bridge loan on a SoHo building, ask who sits where in that stack and who gets paid first. Simply Wall Street Knowing the stack lets you talk risk with confidence.

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans
5.00%+4 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages
4.82%+4 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates
4.69%+4 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal
31 bps0 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Oct 22)
3.90%+2 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it
3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Oct 22)
7.32%-8 bps

Rates as of Oct 23 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 4.96% on Sep 11 to 5.00% on Oct 23.
10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.
Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Oct 23: 2Y 4.69%, 5Y 4.82%, 10Y 5.00%, 30Y 5.33%. A month ago (Sep 23): 2Y 4.85%, 5Y 4.99%, 10Y 5.11%, 30Y 5.40%.
Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.
Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.30% on Apr 30 to 7.32% on Oct 22.
30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates
Oct 28
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders
0.2%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same
94.1%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up
5.7%

Kalshi: hold 93.0%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Oct 28 Fed meeting: cut 0.2%, hold 94.1%, hike 5.7%.
What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Oct 25.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs
$92.690.0%
Biggest gain todayOwns West Coast offices and studios
Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP)+4.0%
Biggest drop todayOwns West Coast multifamily
Essex Property Trust (ESS)-1.5%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ
3.80%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds
-120 bps
Bar chart of moves for the Oct 23 close for 17 REITs, best to worst: HPP +4.0%, VNO +1.3%, BXP +1.0%, DLR +0.8%, DEI +0.8%, EQIX +0.2%, WELL 0.0%, PLD -0.2%, SPG -0.2%, STAG -0.2%, O -0.3%, ADC -0.6%, UDR -0.9%, NNN -1.0%, VICI -1.1%, MAA -1.1%, ESS -1.4%.
Daily move, Oct 23 close, for the REITs we track. Shows which property types had a good day.

Term of the Day

Bridge loan

A short-term loan that carries a property until the owner stabilizes it or lines up permanent financing. Say a buyer pays $10 million for a half-empty building. A bridge loan funds the purchase and repairs. Once the building fills up and cash flow is steady, the owner refinances into a cheaper long-term mortgage and repays the bridge.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread (Oct 22) UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous
3.40%+13 bps
Bank CRE loans (Oct 14)Total commercial property loans banks hold
$3,158B+0.1%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments
1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Sept 2026)Share of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments
8.02%+17 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.

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