CRE Blurb | October 24, 2026

The Brief

A big West Coast industrial landlord flipped from top buyer to major seller, a sign leasing is firming up. Commercial Observer
A hedge fund billionaire locked in financing to build a new Midtown Manhattan office tower from the ground up. Commercial Observer
AI companies are renting more top-grade office space, lifting rents and helping landlords refill half-empty buildings. EdgeProp.sg

Market Snapshot

10-Year Treasury: 5.00%+4 bps; Benchmark for long-term property loans
SOFR: 3.90%+2 bps; Base rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Oct 22)
Real estate stocks (VNQ): $92.690.0%; A fund holding about 150 REITs

Rates as of Oct 23 close. Full market data

Week in Review

Rexford Industrial sold $1.3 billion of Southern California industrial property in the third quarter, including a previously announced $1.2 billion portfolio, as tenant leasing rebounded. The move turns the region's biggest recent buyer into one of its largest sellers, a sign the REIT (a real estate investment trust, a company that owns income property and trades like a stock) thinks prices have recovered enough to cash out. Commercial Observer

Ken Griffin's firm, in a joint venture with Vornado Realty Trust and Rudin, landed $3.3 billion of construction financing to build a 66-story office tower at 350 Park Avenue in Manhattan. A construction loan that size for brand-new office space is rare right now and signals confidence in trophy Midtown buildings. Commercial Observer

The founder of Zara, through his investment vehicle, bought Chicago's One North Wacker office tower for about $550 million, one of the city's largest deals of the year. A foreign buyer paying that much for a downtown Chicago office signals that overseas money sees value in discounted U.S. offices. The Real Deal

Market Spotlight

Industrial real estate (warehouses and distribution space) sent the week's clearest signal. U.S. industrial leasing hit a four-year high, pushed along by demand from AI and data center users for warehouse and land space. Institutional Real Estate, Inc. Owners who held through the slow stretch are seeing tenants come back. That gives sellers a stronger hand and gives lenders more comfort writing new warehouse loans. Tenants, though, face firmer rents as space fills.

AI in Real Estate Weekly

AI demand is now a real driver of property leasing, not just a headline. In Singapore, AI firms renting more office space helped push top-grade central business district rents up in the third quarter, a reminder that AI companies need offices too. EdgeProp.sg Blackstone's quarterly update leaned on the same theme, framing AI infrastructure as a core part of its real estate and fundraising story. FinancialContent

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans: 5.00%+4 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages: 4.82%+4 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates: 4.69%+4 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal: 31 bps0 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Oct 22): 3.90%+2 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it: 3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Oct 22): 7.32%-8 bps

Rates as of Oct 23 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 4.96% on Sep 11 to 5.00% on Oct 23. — 10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.

Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Oct 23: 2Y 4.69%, 5Y 4.82%, 10Y 5.00%, 30Y 5.33%. A month ago (Sep 23): 2Y 4.85%, 5Y 4.99%, 10Y 5.11%, 30Y 5.40%. — Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.

Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.30% on Apr 30 to 7.32% on Oct 22. — 30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates: Oct 28
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders: 0.2%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same: 94.1%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up: 5.7%

Kalshi: hold 91.1%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Oct 28 Fed meeting: cut 0.2%, hold 94.1%, hike 5.7%. — What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Oct 24.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs: $92.690.0%
Biggest gain todayOwns West Coast offices and studios: Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP)+4.0%
Biggest drop todayOwns West Coast multifamily: Essex Property Trust (ESS)-1.5%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ: 3.80%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds: -120 bps

Term of the Day

Loss-to-lease

The gap between what current tenants pay and what the same space would rent for today. If a tenant pays $20 per square foot on an old lease but the market is now $24, the owner has a $4 loss-to-lease, which is potential rent upside once that lease renews or resets.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread (Oct 22) UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous: 3.40%+13 bps
Bank CRE loans (Oct 14)Total commercial property loans banks hold: $3,158B+0.1%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments: 1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Sept 2026)Share of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments: 8.02%+17 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.

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