CRE Blurb | November 8, 2026

The Brief

A Chicago Loop office tower fell into a foreclosure lawsuit after a bankruptcy fight, putting its lender at risk. The Real Deal
A large commercial mortgage lender walked through its latest quarter, showing how debt investors read property risk now. TradingView
A major apartment lender shared quarterly results, signaling how multifamily financing is holding up right now. Yahoo Finance

Market Snapshot

10-Year Treasury: 4.86%+2 bps; Benchmark for long-term property loans
SOFR: 3.92%-2 bps; Base rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Nov 5)
Real estate stocks (VNQ): $95.73-0.5%; A fund holding about 150 REITs

Rates as of Nov 6 close. Full market data

REIT Weekly

Listed REITs trade like stocks but own buildings, so a strong or weak week often tracks moves in interest rates and property demand. The names below are this week's biggest gainers and losers.

Best this week: SPG +4.9%, WELL +4.4%, ADC +4.2%
Worst this week: HPP -19.4%, DLR -3.6%, PLD -0.8%
REIT yield vs. 10Y: VNQ yields 3.63%, -123 bps vs. the 10Y.

Week Ahead

There is no Fed meeting this week; the next one is Dec 9. The calendar below shows scheduled Fed speeches and the major data releases that can move rates and property values.

Mon Nov 9, 8:40 AM ET: Discussion: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, Federal Reserve
Tue Nov 10, 4:00 AM ET: Speech: Governor Christopher J. Waller, Federal Reserve
Tue Nov 10, 3:30 PM ET: Speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, Federal Reserve
Tue Nov 10: Consumer Price Index (CPI), FRED
Thu Nov 12, 10:00 AM ET: Speech: Governor Michael S. Barr, Federal Reserve
Thu Nov 12: Existing home sales, FRED
Fri Nov 13, 10:50 AM ET: Discussion: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, Federal Reserve
Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET: Speech: Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson, Federal Reserve
Fri Nov 13: Producer Price Index (PPI), FRED

Careers Corner

Learn to read an earnings call. Public lenders like Starwood Property Trust and Walker & Dunlop host a call each quarter, and free write-ups (TradingView) recap them for free. Listen for how managers describe loan problems, new lending, and borrower health. That is real-time market color you can repeat in an interview. It beats memorizing definitions, because it shows you follow the market, not just the textbook.

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans: 4.86%+2 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages: 4.64%+5 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates: 4.51%+5 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal: 35 bps-3 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Nov 5): 3.92%-2 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it: 3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Nov 5): 7.18%-6 bps

Rates as of Nov 6 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 5.17% on Sep 25 to 4.86% on Nov 6. — 10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.

Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Nov 6: 2Y 4.51%, 5Y 4.64%, 10Y 4.86%, 30Y 5.26%. A month ago (Oct 7): 2Y 4.77%, 5Y 5.03%, 10Y 5.28%, 30Y 5.67%. — Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.

Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.36% on May 14 to 7.18% on Nov 5. — 30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates: Dec 9
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders: 1.2%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same: 21.6%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up: 77.2%

Kalshi: hold 22.0%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Dec 9 Fed meeting: cut 1.2%, hold 21.6%, hike 77.2%. — What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Nov 8.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs: $95.73-0.5%
Biggest gain todayOwns data centers: Equinix (EQIX)+1.5%
Biggest drop todayOwns West Coast offices and studios: Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP)-3.1%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ: 3.63%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds: -123 bps

Term of the Day

Bad-boy carve-outs

Most commercial mortgages are non-recourse, meaning the lender can take the building if the loan fails but cannot chase the borrower's own money. Carve-outs are the exceptions. If the borrower commits fraud, hides rent, or files a bad-faith bankruptcy, the loan turns personal and the borrower can owe the shortfall directly.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread (Nov 5) UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous: 3.48%+16 bps
Bank CRE loans (Oct 28)Total commercial property loans banks hold: $3,155B+0.1%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments: 1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Oct 2026) UpdatedShare of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments: 7.87%-15 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.

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