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Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Weekend Edition

CRE Blurb: Sunday, November 1, 2026

The daily commercial real estate briefing for students and professionalsDaily CRE briefing for students

The Brief

  1. Apollo's commercial mortgage arm is moving toward liquidation, a warning sign for property lenders and their investors. Timothy Sykes
  2. A large Colorado apartment portfolio landed bridge financing, showing lenders still back solid multifamily deals. Yield PRO
  3. An apartment owner refinanced in a tough lending market, proof that quality deals can still get done. ACCESS Newswire

Market Snapshot

10-Year Treasury
4.94%-4 bps
Benchmark for long-term property loans
SOFR
3.94%0 bps
Base rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Oct 29)
Real estate stocks (VNQ)
$93.94+0.1%
A fund holding about 150 REITs

Rates as of Oct 30 close. Full market data

REIT Weekly

REITs trade on where interest rates go, so a quiet week in rates usually means a quiet week in these stocks. The gap between what a REIT pays out and what a Treasury pays tells you how much extra yield investors demand for owning property instead of government debt.

  • Best this week: EQIX +6.1%, DLR +4.8%, VICI +2.9%
  • Worst this week: ESS -5.1%, HPP -4.2%, MAA -2.1%
  • REIT yield vs. 10Y: VNQ yields 3.80%, -114 bps vs. the 10Y.

Week Ahead

There is no Fed meeting this week. The next one is Dec 9, so rate traders will lean on the data below instead. The jobs report and job openings matter most for property: strong hiring points to more demand for offices, apartments and warehouses, while a cooling labor market strengthens the case for the Fed to cut rates later.

  • Mon Nov 2: Construction spending, FRED
  • Tue Nov 3: Job openings (JOLTS), FRED
  • Fri Nov 6, 12:15 PM ET: Discussion: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, Federal Reserve
  • Fri Nov 6: Jobs report (Employment Situation), FRED

Careers Corner

When lending is hard, watch which deals actually get financed. That tells you which lenders are still open and what kind of borrower they trust. This week an apartment owner refinanced a property "despite a challenging environment," per ACCESS Newswire. Naming a recent refinancing and the lender behind it, in an interview, shows you follow the market, not just the headlines.

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans
4.94%-4 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages
4.71%-7 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates
4.56%-5 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal
38 bps+1 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Oct 29)
3.94%0 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it
3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Oct 29)
7.24%-8 bps

Rates as of Oct 30 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 5.01% on Sep 18 to 4.94% on Oct 30.
10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.
Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Oct 30: 2Y 4.56%, 5Y 4.71%, 10Y 4.94%, 30Y 5.31%. A month ago (Sep 30): 2Y 4.88%, 5Y 5.09%, 10Y 5.29%, 30Y 5.64%.
Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.
Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.37% on May 7 to 7.24% on Oct 29.
30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates
Dec 9
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders
0.9%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same
27.3%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up
71.8%

Kalshi: hold 28.1%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Dec 9 Fed meeting: cut 0.9%, hold 27.3%, hike 71.8%.
What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Nov 1.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs
$93.94+0.1%
Biggest gain todayOwns malls and outlet centers
Simon Property Group (SPG)+0.9%
Biggest drop todayOwns West Coast offices and studios
Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP)-5.0%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ
3.80%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds
-114 bps
Bar chart of moves for the Oct 30 close for 17 REITs, best to worst: SPG +0.9%, WELL +0.6%, UDR +0.3%, NNN +0.2%, O 0.0%, PLD 0.0%, VICI -0.2%, BXP -0.3%, ESS -0.4%, ADC -0.4%, DEI -0.8%, MAA -0.9%, STAG -1.1%, DLR -1.2%, VNO -1.8%, EQIX -2.2%, HPP -5.0%.
Daily move, Oct 30 close, for the REITs we track. Shows which property types had a good day.

Term of the Day

Core-plus

A property that is mostly leased and steady but has room for small improvements. An investor might buy a building that is, say, 85 percent occupied, spend a little to update units, and lease up the rest. The reward is a bit more return than a fully stabilized asset, with a bit more risk.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread (Oct 29) UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous
3.26%+12 bps
Bank CRE loans (Oct 21)Total commercial property loans banks hold
$3,151B-0.2%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments
1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Sept 2026)Share of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments
8.02%+17 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.

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