CRE Blurb | October 28, 2026

The Brief

New York City passed a law letting tenants and nonprofits buy apartment buildings first when owners sell. Commercial Observer
San Francisco again leads the country in office demand, with leasing growth now spreading beyond tech tenants. Boston Real Estate Times
A major investor took a stake in Alexandria's San Diego life science campus as the sector cools. Citybiz

Market Snapshot

10-Year Treasury: 4.99%-1 bps; Benchmark for long-term property loans
SOFR: 3.95%+2 bps; Base rate for floating-rate property loans
Real estate stocks (VNQ): $92.39-0.8%; A fund holding about 150 REITs

Rates as of Oct 27 close. Full market data

Top Story

New York City passes COPA, but the impact may be modest

After six years of stalled drafts and lobbying, the New York City Council passed the Community Opportunity to Purchase Act. It gives tenants and nonprofit groups a first chance to buy apartment buildings when owners put them up for sale.

Source: Commercial Observer: New York City passes COPA, but the impact may be modest

Why it matters Landlords selling rent-stabilized buildings now face a new step that could slow sales and favor tenant-backed buyers, though many expect the day-to-day market to change less than the headlines suggest.

Coffee chat talking points

Talking points you can use in networking conversations

A West Loop office tower facing a $310 million foreclosure shows even mostly leased buildings can struggle once their debt comes due. The Real Deal
CRE sales volume hit its highest third quarter since 2022, even as office towers keep selling through foreclosure, a sign the recovery remains uneven. GlobeSt.com

Debt Markets

Commercial mortgage delinquencies climbed in the third quarter, with loans bundled into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS, bonds backed by pools of property loans) leading the rise. The trend points to more owners falling behind on payments. Mortgage Professional America

Why it matters: More missed payments push lenders to tighten terms, so owners with loans coming due face a harder time refinancing.

Lenders are getting far more selective about data center loans as the sector grows, scrutinizing where a project sits and who is behind it. Stricter standards could reward strong operators and squeeze weaker ones. Commercial Observer

Why it matters: Operators without creditworthy tenants may find it tougher to borrow, which could slow the data center building boom.

Savanna and Deutsche Bank are still pushing off the foreclosure sale of 521 Fifth Avenue, two years after the $242 million CMBS loan on the Bryant Park office tower defaulted. Savanna had paid $381 million for the building in 2019. Commercial Observer

Why it matters: The delay shows how long distressed office workouts drag on, leaving lenders holding bad loans for years.

Office loans bundled into CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities, bonds backed by pools of property loans) are struggling to pay off when they come due. Only 12.8% of maturing office loans are getting paid in full, while retail loans are nearing a 90% payoff rate. The split shows lenders still trust stores far more than office buildings. Yahoo Finance

Why it matters: Office owners whose loans are maturing may struggle to refinance, so more of them could be forced to sell cheap or hand buildings back to lenders.

Distress Watch: A 32-story Boston office tower at 100 Summer Street sold at a foreclosure auction for $260 million, with owner Rockpoint casting the sole bid to hold onto the building. Bisnow

Market Watch

Sun Belt

Microsoft paid $95.5 million for farmland in Dallas County, the kind of large land purchase tech firms make to bank sites for future data centers. The buy adds to a run of tech land-grabbing across Texas. Business Record

Why it matters: Tech buyers paying up for raw land push up nearby land values and signal where the next wave of data center demand is headed.

West Coast

The latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report for 2027 lays out nine takeaways on where investors and developers see opportunity and risk next year. The annual survey is widely watched as a read on industry sentiment. Bisnow

Why it matters: The report shapes where capital flows next year, so owners and lenders use it to gauge which property types will stay in favor.

International

Japan's Takenaka Corporation is under contract to buy One Broadway, the trophy office tower held by Rockwood Capital and Midtown Equities, for $170 million. Newmark brokers negotiated the sale. Commercial Observer

Why it matters: A foreign buyer paying up for a marquee Manhattan tower shows overseas money still treats top US office as a safe place to park capital.

Quick Hits

Rising interest rates are stalling the pace of San Francisco multifamily deals, even with rents climbing and supply tight. Bisnow Higher borrowing costs make apartment purchases harder to pencil out, so buyers and sellers stall until the math works again.
Commercial property prices posted their strongest annual gain since December 2025. GlobeSt.com Recovering values give owners more equity to refinance against and nudge sidelined sellers to list.
The Alexander brothers were each sentenced to 30 years in prison, with the judge calling their conduct monstrous. The Real Deal The sentencing is a reminder that fraud by prominent real estate figures carries heavy criminal penalties.

AI Infrastructure

Four firms structured a landmark $63 billion financing to fund AI infrastructure, one of the largest such deals to date. The structure pools capital to pay for the data centers, power and equipment that AI systems run on. Law360 Data center developers gain cheaper, larger pools of capital, while the banks and investors behind the structure take on the risk if AI demand slows.

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans: 4.99%-1 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages: 4.82%-2 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates: 4.70%+2 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal: 29 bps-3 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans: 3.95%+2 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it: 3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Oct 22): 7.32%-8 bps

Rates as of Oct 27 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 5.00% on Sep 15 to 4.99% on Oct 27. — 10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.

Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Oct 27: 2Y 4.70%, 5Y 4.82%, 10Y 4.99%, 30Y 5.30%. A month ago (Sep 25): 2Y 4.81%, 5Y 4.98%, 10Y 5.17%, 30Y 5.49%. — Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.

Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.30% on Apr 30 to 7.32% on Oct 22. — 30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates: Oct 28
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders: 0.1%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same: 95.1%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up: 4.8%

Kalshi: hold 94.1%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Oct 28 Fed meeting: cut 0.1%, hold 95.1%, hike 4.8%. — What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Oct 28.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs: $92.39-0.8%
Biggest gain todayOwns data centers: Equinix (EQIX)+3.3%
Biggest drop todayOwns senior housing and medical buildings: Welltower (WELL)-5.8%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ: 3.80%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds: -119 bps

What it means: Rates were little changed, so the cost of a new loan looks about the same as last week, giving buyers and lenders a steady backdrop to price deals rather than a reason to move.

Why Equinix (EQIX) moved: No company-specific news today; it may have moved with other data center REITs.

Why Welltower (WELL) moved: Welltower, the largest senior housing landlord, reported a strong quarter on rising occupancy and more acquisitions, so the slip likely reflects investors who had already priced in good results. Commercial Observer

Term of the Day

Trophy asset

A top-tier, iconic building in the best part of a city that commands the highest rents and sale prices. Buyers accept a lower return because the quality and location are rare. One Broadway, under contract for $170 million, is the kind of prize that foreign buyers chase.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous: 3.18%-12 bps
Bank CRE loans (Oct 14)Total commercial property loans banks hold: $3,158B+0.1%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments: 1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Sept 2026)Share of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments: 8.02%+17 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.

New issue every morning at creblurb.org.

CRE Blurb: Wednesday, October 28, 2026