CRE Blurb | October 22, 2026

The Brief

A major project broke ground on the Chicago site where an earlier megaplan collapsed, testing big-project demand. The Real Deal
Silicon Valley office leasing hit one of its strongest quarters on record, a sign tenants are back. The Real Deal
Ken Griffin locked in a huge construction loan for a new Midtown Manhattan tower, showing big lenders still fund trophy offices. Commercial Observer

Market Snapshot

10-Year Treasury: 5.13%+1 bps; Benchmark for long-term property loans
SOFR: 3.88%0 bps; Base rate for floating-rate property loans
Real estate stocks (VNQ): $91.49-0.9%; A fund holding about 150 REITs

Rates as of Oct 21 close. Full market data

Top Story

$3B Foundry Park breaks ground at former Lincoln Yards site

Developers broke ground on Foundry Park, a $3 billion project on the Chicago riverfront where the earlier Lincoln Yards plan stalled out. The restart revives one of the city's most watched development sites. The Real Deal

Why it matters A stalled site restarting tells other Chicago developers that lenders and the city will still back large, long-horizon projects.

Coffee chat talking points

Talking points you can use in networking conversations

Chicago is courting major new development even as an $882 million budget hole revives a per-employee head tax, raising downtown occupancy costs. The Real Deal
Blackstone's LivCor sold Rampart Village for 33% less than it paid, while a Denver team calls office the bottom, so losses and bargains are landing together. The Real Deal

Debt Markets

Ken Griffin, in a joint venture with Vornado Realty Trust and Rudin, landed $3.3 billion of construction financing for a 66-story office tower at 350 Park Avenue in Midtown Manhattan. The loan arrives months after a public feud between Griffin and New York's mayor. Commercial Observer

Why it matters: Lenders writing a check this size for ground-up office means they believe top-tier Manhattan space will lease, even as older towers struggle.

Related refinanced Manhattan Plaza with a $750 million loan, replacing old debt on the large residential complex with a new mortgage. The Real Deal

Why it matters: A clean refinancing on a stabilized apartment property shows lenders still favor multifamily when the building has steady occupancy.

Genting Americas scored a $500 million loan to refinance the mixed-use Omni Center near Downtown Miami, three years after failing to sell the neighboring 15-acre site for $1.2 billion. Commercial Observer

Why it matters: Refinancing buys an owner time to hold a property instead of selling into a weak market, keeping the asset off the distressed pile.

Distress Watch: Trepp reports that as of August 2026, $11.6 billion of the $635.82 billion universe of securitized multifamily loans was delinquent, and half of that sat in private-label CMBS deals (bonds backed by loans Wall Street packaged rather than Fannie or Freddie). Connect CRE

Market Watch

Sun Belt

Trepp reports that $3.04 billion across 130 performing floating-rate agency multifamily loans in Texas, or 25.3% of that performing balance, shows a debt service coverage ratio below 1.0x. That means the properties' reported cash flow is not enough to cover their loan payments, even though the loans are still current. Trepp

Why it matters: A coverage ratio under 1.0x is an early warning, so Texas apartment owners with floating-rate debt may need to add cash or sell before loans go bad.

West Coast

A lender is pushing for the sale of a Sun Valley studio owned by Blackstone and Hudson Pacific that now sits completely vacant. The move suggests the lender wants out rather than waiting for a tenant. The Real Deal

Why it matters: When a lender forces a sale of an empty building, it signals they have given up on a quick turnaround and will accept a lower price to exit.

International

Canadian office availability fell to 15.1% as the pipeline of new construction shrinks. Fewer new buildings means existing space gets absorbed instead of competing with brand-new supply. Connect CRE Canada

Why it matters: Falling availability with less new construction gives Canadian office landlords room to hold or raise rents as tenants compete for fewer options.

Quick Hits

Regency Centers is deepening its Dallas footprint through grocery-anchored neighborhood centers. The Business Journals Centers anchored by a supermarket tend to hold up in downturns because people shop for food in any economy.
The Broe Group is entering Southern California as part of a billion-dollar multifamily push. PR Newswire A new large buyer entering a market usually means it sees rent growth ahead that current owners may be underpricing.
Hudson Pacific Properties cleared a major hurdle for a downtown San Francisco office-to-residential conversion. The Business Journals Turning an empty office into apartments can rescue a building's value when office demand is too weak to fill it.
Manhattan investment sales dipped in the third quarter but still ran ahead of last year's pace. Commercial Observer Even a slowing sales market can be healthy if deals are still outpacing the prior year.
Los Angeles County multifamily sales jumped this year while rents and occupancy held flat. Commercial Observer Rising sales with flat rents mean buyers are paying for expected future income, not today's cash flow.
Multifamily owners are leaning on operating savings to protect income as rent growth stalls. GlobeSt.com When landlords cannot raise rents, cutting costs is the main way left to defend profit and loan coverage.

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans: 5.13%+1 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages: 4.95%+1 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates: 4.81%+2 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal: 32 bps-1 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans: 3.88%0 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it: 3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Oct 22): 7.32%-8 bps

Rates as of Oct 21 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 4.83% on Sep 9 to 5.13% on Oct 21. — 10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.

Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Oct 21: 2Y 4.81%, 5Y 4.95%, 10Y 5.13%, 30Y 5.42%. A month ago (Sep 21): 2Y 4.76%, 5Y 4.83%, 10Y 4.96%, 30Y 5.29%. — Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.

Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.30% on Apr 30 to 7.32% on Oct 22. — 30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates: Oct 28
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders: 0.3%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same: 90.9%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up: 8.8%

Kalshi: hold 90.0%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Oct 28 Fed meeting: cut 0.3%, hold 90.9%, hike 8.8%. — What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Oct 22.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs: $91.49-0.9%
Biggest gain todayOwns multifamily: UDR+1.8%
Biggest drop todayOwns net-lease retail like grocery and auto parts stores: Agree Realty (ADC)-3.9%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ: 3.80%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds: -133 bps

What it means: Rates barely moved, so borrowing costs for new loans and refinancings sit about where they did yesterday, giving buyers and lenders a steady number to underwrite against.

Why UDR moved: No company-specific news today; it may have moved with other multifamily REITs.

Why Agree Realty (ADC) moved: No company-specific news today; it may have moved with other retail REITs.

Term of the Day

Sale-leaseback

A deal where a company sells a property it owns, then signs a lease to keep using it. The seller frees up cash tied in the building while staying in place as a tenant. For example, a retailer might sell its store for $10 million and lease it back for 15 years. The buyer gains a steady rent; the seller gains capital to spend elsewhere.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous: 3.27%-6 bps
Bank CRE loans (Oct 7)Total commercial property loans banks hold: $3,155B+0.2%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments: 1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Sept 2026)Share of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments: 8.02%+17 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.

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CRE Blurb: Thursday, October 22, 2026