CRE Blurb | October 11, 2026

The Brief

Office loans bundled into bonds are souring faster than ever, a warning to the banks and investors holding them. Hokanews
The average 30-year mortgage rate hit a multi-year high, squeezing anyone trying to buy or refinance a home. EIN News
A large apartment portfolio won a fresh government-backed refinance, a sign lenders still fund solid multifamily deals. Yield PRO

Market Snapshot

10-Year Treasury: 5.24%+2 bps; Benchmark for long-term property loans
SOFR: 3.87%-1 bps; Base rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Oct 8)
Real estate stocks (VNQ): $90.65+1.5%; A fund holding about 150 REITs

Rates as of Oct 9 close. Full market data

REIT Weekly

REITs are companies that own income-producing property and trade like stocks, so their weekly moves show how public investors feel about real estate. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, REIT dividends look less attractive next to safe government bonds.

Best this week: UDR +2.6%, MAA +1.4%, ESS +1.3%
Worst this week: NNN -1.7%, VNO -0.5%, BXP -0.5%
REIT yield vs. 10Y: VNQ yields 3.80%, -144 bps vs. the 10Y.

Week Ahead

There is no Fed meeting this week. The next one is Oct 28. The week brings fresh inflation and spending data, plus several Fed officials speaking, all of which can nudge the interest rates that set borrowing costs across commercial real estate.

Tue Oct 13, 3:45 AM ET: Discussion: Governor Christopher J. Waller, Federal Reserve
Tue Oct 13: Existing home sales, FRED
Wed Oct 14, 5:40 AM ET: Discussion: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, Federal Reserve
Wed Oct 14, 2:00 PM ET: Beige Book, Federal Reserve
Wed Oct 14, 10:55 PM ET: Speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, Federal Reserve
Wed Oct 14: Consumer Price Index (CPI), FRED
Thu Oct 15: Producer Price Index (PPI), FRED
Thu Oct 15: Retail sales, FRED

Careers Corner

Learn to read a debt schedule before your first real estate interview. A debt schedule is a simple table listing each loan on a property: its size, its interest rate, and the date it comes due. The date it comes due is called the maturity. Knowing when loans mature tells you when an owner must refinance or sell, which is often where the real risk and opportunity sit. In a case study, pointing to a near-term maturity shows you grasp how financing drives returns as much as rent does. It is a skill brokers, lenders, and analysts all respect.

The Numbers

Every number is filled in automatically from public data.

Rates

10-Year TreasuryBenchmark for long-term property loans: 5.24%+2 bps
5-Year TreasuryBenchmark for many 5-year commercial mortgages: 5.02%+3 bps
2-Year TreasuryTracks where the Fed is expected to set rates: 4.80%+5 bps
10Y-2Y curveNegative = short-term rates above long-term, often a slowdown signal: 44 bps-3 bps
SOFRBase rate for floating-rate property loans (as of Oct 8): 3.87%-1 bps
Fed FundsThe Fed's target for overnight bank lending; other rates key off it: 3.75% to 4.00%0 bps
30-Year Mortgage30-year home mortgage rate (Freddie Mac); a housing-demand gauge, not a CRE loan rate (as of Oct 8): 7.40%+12 bps

Rates as of Oct 9 close.

Line chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield, from 4.73% on Aug 28 to 5.24% on Oct 9. — 10-Year Treasury yield, last 45 days.

Line chart of Treasury yields by maturity. On Oct 9: 2Y 4.80%, 5Y 5.02%, 10Y 5.24%, 30Y 5.60%. A month ago (Sep 9): 2Y 4.43%, 5Y 4.61%, 10Y 4.83%, 30Y 5.28%. — Treasury yields by maturity, latest close vs. a month ago. Upward slope = longer loans cost more.

Line chart of the 30-year mortgage rate over the last six months, from 6.30% on Apr 16 to 7.40% on Oct 8. — 30-year mortgage rate, last six months (Freddie Mac).

Federal Reserve

FOMC: next Fed meetingWhen the Fed next decides on rates: Oct 28
Odds of a cutChance rates go down. Prediction-market odds from Polymarket traders: 0.9%
Odds of a holdChance rates stay the same: 82.5%
Odds of a hikeChance rates go up: 16.6%

Kalshi: hold 83.2%

Stacked bar of prediction-market odds for the Oct 28 Fed meeting: cut 0.9%, hold 82.5%, hike 16.6%. — What prediction markets expect at the next Fed meeting. Odds as of Oct 11.

REITs

Real estate stocks (VNQ)A fund holding about 150 REITs: $90.65+1.5%
Biggest gain todayOwns apartments: UDR+1.6%
Biggest drop todayOwns New York City offices and retail: Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)-0.5%
REIT dividend yieldYearly income per $100 invested in VNQ: 3.80%
REIT yield vs. 10-Year TreasuryBelow zero: Treasuries out-yield REIT dividends, so REITs look pricey vs. bonds: -144 bps

Term of the Day

NOI (net operating income)

A property's rent and other income minus its operating costs, such as taxes, insurance, and maintenance, but before any loan payments. If a building earns 1,000,000 dollars in rent and spends 400,000 dollars to run, its NOI is 600,000 dollars. Buyers and lenders use NOI to judge what a property is worth.

Data Room

Slower-moving credit data. Rows marked Updated changed since the last issue.

High-yield spread (Oct 8) UpdatedExtra interest risky companies pay over Treasuries; higher = lenders more nervous: 3.15%+6 bps
Bank CRE loans (Sep 30)Total commercial property loans banks hold: $3,142B+0.1%
Bank CRE delinquency (Q2 2026)Share of banks' commercial property loans that are behind on payments: 1.53%-3 bps
CMBS delinquency (Sept 2026)Share of commercial property loans in bonds that are behind on payments: 8.02%+17 bps

Data checks: REIT prices came from a single source today. Treasury yields matched across FRED and Treasury.gov. Fed odds in line with Kalshi.

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